With the primary elections just over a week away, Gaum politics is surely heating up. McNinch, who's known for his election polls, has made some predictions, some of which may not come as a surprise to some voters.
McNinch addressed the Rotary Club of Tumon Bay today as their guest speaker. In the delegate race, McNinch easily places Bordallo at the top. McNinch says the poll was conducted by his political science students with 276 participants made up of half men and half women.
According to the latest poll, which was just finished this morning (Tuesday), Bordallo has 51 percent of the votes and democrat candidate Karlo Dizon and GOP candidate Sen. Frank Blas Jr. were tied with 23 percent.
"Dizon is doing fairly well. When I wrote this he was a 15 now he's a 23 (percent). The independents and write-ins are a non-issue. In fact, after the independent attack on Madeleine Bordallo, he just fell through the floor and hasn't ever recovered," says McNinch. "In general, what's gonig to happen is after the primary, it's going to wind down to Blas versus Bordallo. And it's going to be an uphill battle sort of game for Blas."
While the polls favor Bordallo by a landslide, McNinch says Dizon still has a chance to take the primary elections. "You never know ... Karlo might pull through," says McNinch.
On the legislative race, McNinch emphasizes that it will be a tight race as there are 31 candidates but only 30 who can advance to the general election--15 democrats and 15 republicans. He predicts that former Sen. Frank Aguon Jr., who stepped out of the legislative race in 2010 to run in the gubernatorial race, will be a top vote getter in the primary and general elections.
The bigger question, McNinch says, is which party will take the majority. At this point, McNinch says its a toss up with the results either going 9-6 or 10-5 in favor of a democrat majority or an 8-7 GOP majority. While the democrats have held the majority in the last two legislatures, McNinch cautions that they will have to fight hard to maintain it going forward. McNinch adds that the majority on Guam changes "all the time."
As for the public auditor race, McNinch thinks former Gov. Carl Gutierrez will be successful even as a write-in candidate. He calls it a "potential horse race to the end" as Gutierrez is facing three-term public auditor Doris Flores-Brooks.